No one was quite prepared for just how convincingly Republican candidates' would trounce their opponents in Tuesday's midterm. In races across the country, Republicans won where the polls showed them ahead, and even in a few places where the polls didn't.

None of these surprises are more significant than Gov. Sam Brownback's reelection in Kansas. Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium confidently predicted he would lose. At Five Thirty Eight, Harry Enten had given Brownback an 18 percent chance of victory.

In the end, it wasn't even that close: Brownback won even 50 percent of the vote to Democrat Paul Davis's 46.1 percent.

Predictions are sometimes wrong, of course -- that, in itself, shouldn't be too surprising. What makes Kansas an interesting case is that Brownback implemented and campaigned on an aggressively conservative economic policy, a series of supply-side reductions in taxes that have created an expanding budget deficit. These tax cuts lead Kansans to close classrooms, fire teachers, increase class sizes and raise local property levies. Hundreds of Republicans, worried about the state's financial stability, turned against him, but he won without their support.

You could argue that in other races, voters were generally unhappy with the direction of the country and blamed President Obama and his party even though Republicans, who control the House, are equally responsible. The vote in Kansas wasn't just a vote against Obama, however. It was a vote in favor of a Republican agenda, and not just the talking points, but also the practical consequences.

There may be some other explanation for Davis's defeat that we'll discover in the coming days, but Republicans in Congress who hold supply-side views are likely to take it as evidence that voters are on their side.

What's in Wonkbook: 1) Republicans take the Senate 2) Opinions: Looking ahead to 2016 3) Republicans win in gubernatorial races 4) Liberals win on ballot measures 5) What was left out of the U.N. climate report, Obamacare isn't helping small businesses, and more.

Number of the day: 1 percent. That's how many voters said the economy was "excellent," according to exit polls. Sounds about right. Ironically, Obama is most unpopular among the people whose standards of living have increased the most during Obama's administration -- the very rich. Matt O'Brien in The Washington Post.

Chart of the day: 

The midterms were exhausting, but keep in mind that the only real alternative to holding elections is a political system that relies on assassinations, coups and civil wars. Roman emperors were more likely to be assassinated or executed than to die of natural causes, a sharp contrast with U.S. presidents. Orderly, nonviolent transitions of power are better for everyone, politicians especially. Zack Beauchamp at Vox.

1. Top story: Republicans win the Senate

After eight years, Republicans restore control in "a stunning electoral rout." "By early Wednesday, Republican candidates had won at least 10 of the day’s 13 closely contested Senate races. They took seats held by Democrats in Iowa, Colorado, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia and North Carolina — more than enough to seize control of the Senate for the first time since 2007." David Fahrenthold in The Washington Post.

For Democrats, the results were "far worse than any of them had feared." Unhappy voters turned their ire against the party in control of the White House. Republicans "won nearly every competitive contest in states held by Democrats and held on to the states that had looked like they might go to the Democrats. Instead of slipping into the majority, the GOP stormed to power in the Senate." Dan Balz in The Washington Post.

Before they could take the Senate, Republicans had to stop making offensive comments. "Republican operatives sent fake campaign trackers — interns and staff members brandishing video cameras to record every utterance and move — to trail their own candidates. In media training sessions, candidates were forced to sit through a reel of the most self-destructive moments of 2012." Jeremy Peters and Carl Hulse in The New York Times.

Energy companies and medical device makers win, while Boeing and the Congressional Budget Office loses. A look at who gains and who doesn't from Republicans' win in the Senate. Lori Montgomery in The Washington Post.

2. Top opinions: Looking ahead

DOUTHAT: The Democratic defeat is a reminder that numbers aren't everything. Confident projections of a Democratic national majority far into the future based on past successes ignore what can't be predicted. Things can always change. The New York Times.

YGLESIAS: This election was about a lot more than the map. Ahead of the races, analysts noted that many of the midterm's races were happening in conservative states. But Republicans won elsewhere, too. Vox.

EDSALL: Republicans are looking in a good position for 2016. There are three reasons:

-- The tea party is no longer a threat to the party's credibility.

-- Women's issues failed to mobilize Democratic voters.

-- Republicans won in Wisconsin and Michigan, two important states in the next presidential election.

The New York Times.

GOLDFARB: Americans still overwhelmingly agree with Democrats on most issues. From social issues to economic policy to global warming, Democrats' views agree with the public's. The Washington Post.

3. Republicans win in the governor's races

Brownback cruises to victory in Kansas. Reelection "keeps alive his plan to make Kansas a laboratory for the theory that economic development will more than make up for revenue lost to lower taxes." Esmé Deprez for Bloomberg.

Larry Hogan stunned the Democratic establishment in Maryland.  "Hogan smartly found the most emotionally potent campaign issue — economic uncertainty and high taxes — and drove it home incessantly and persuasively," said one strategist. Paul Schwartzman in The Washington Post.

Coakley is behind, but she hasn't yet conceded in Massachusetts. Baker's lead is very narrow, but not enough to force a recount. Frank Phillips and Michael Levenson in The Boston Globe.

The Colorado race is still too close to call. Hickenlooper is ahead, but just by several thousand votes. John Frank and Joey Bunch in The Denver Post.

Snyder's reelection in Michigan shows how weak labor has become. He withstood unions' intense opposition after signing a right-to-work law in the state most closely associated the traditional industrial labor institutions. Jonathan Cohn in The New Republic.

PHILIP KLEIN: Scott Walker's win is a victory for conservative principles. His Democratic opponent didn't try to run against his anti-union policies, which have proved popular with voters. Now he's a leading contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. The Washington Examiner.

4. Liberals win on ballot measures

Voters increase the minimum wage in four states. Ballot initiatives passed by overwhelming margins in Alaska, Nebraska, and Arkansas. The margin in South Dakota was narrower, with 53 percent of voters in favor. Katy Steinmetz in Time.

Alaska, Oregon and the District of Columbia legalize marijuana. So did voters in Guam. But a proposed amendment to Florida's state constitution to allow for medical marijuana didn't achieve the 60 percent of votes it needed to pass. David Knowles for Bloomberg. 

Florida's failed marijuana amendment apparently brought out the youth vote. Pot is a politically powerful issue, even if it isn't a guaranteed winner. Young voters made up 14 percent of the electorate, compared to 8 percent in 2010. Christopher Ingraham in The Washington Post.

Personhood measures fail in Colorado and North Dakota. The practical consequences of the measures were never clear, but voters rejected both by wide margins. Laura Bassett at The Huffington Post.

Berkeley, Calif. will be the first city in the country to tax soda. The penny-per-ounce tax on sugary beverages passed overwhelmingly in a defeat for the industry, which outspent proponents 10 to 1 in the campaign. Tom Lochner in The Contra-Costa Times.

5. Meanwhile, the world didn't stop spinning

Two crucial pages were left out of the latest U.N. climate report. The pages contained the most explicit warning in the report about how much carbon the world can afford to burn in the near future, and clearly stated that developing countries are at the greatest risk in a warmer climate. A group of scientists worked on the section for three years, but the world's governments couldn't agree on the wording for such a controversial issue. Chris Mooney in The Washington Post.

Fewer small businesses are offering their employees health insurance. Last year, only a handful signed up on the special exchanges for small businesses created under Obamacare. The administration has another chance when enrollment opens again this month, but some observers are skeptical that the markets can be sustained. Reed Abelson in The New York Times.

Wealthy sons are much more likely to work for their father's companies. By their thirtieth birthday, more than one in five sons from families in the top income decile have worked for the same company as their father. "The easiest way to get your foot in the door is for your dad to hold it open for you." Matt O'Brien in The Washington Post.

Pastors are openly defying the law against electioneering. Like other organizations, churches risk forfeiting their favored tax status if clergy endorse political candidates, but hundreds of ministers are doing so anyway as a protest against the law. Rachael Bade at Politico.

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