Nov. 4, 2014

Welcome to Wonkbook, Wonkblog's morning policy news primer by Max Ehrenfreund (@MaxEhrenfreud). Send comments, criticism or ideas to Wonkbook at Washpost dot com. To read more by the Wonkblog team, click here. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook

David Perdue, the Republican Senate candidate in Georgia, is beating Democrat Michelle Nunn in the polls, but it's the Libertarian candidate, Amanda Swafford, who is the greatest danger to his campaign. If Perdue doesn't win a majority of the ballots cast Tuesday, he will have to face his Democratic opponent in a runoff on Jan. 6. We might not know who the winner is in Georgia until next year. What's worse, both sides are likely to spend the weeks between now and a runoff arguing about whether voter suppression skewed Tuesday's results.

Georgia is the only state with both a truly competitive Senate race and a stringent law on voter identification. Political scientists and the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office have found generally found that voter ID laws reduce turnout by 2 percentage points or a little more, though there is obviously variation in the results. The law may have less of an effect in Georgia, which implemented the law in 2008, so election workers, organizers and voters may be better prepared for it by now. That said, Nunn doesn't need to erase Perdue's advantage entirely to get to a runoff. She just needs to keep the race close enough that Perdue doesn't take more than half of the vote. Recent polls show it will be close. If Perdue wins outright, Nunn's campaign will be able to make the case that voter ID prevented her from getting enough voters to the polls to dilute Perdue's share of the vote and force a runoff (although even in a runoff, she would face long odds).

Complicating matters further is the dispute over the names of some 40,000 people who registered to vote, according to the New Georgia Project, a group aiming to mobilize Georgia's growing population of minorities. The New Georgia Project says those names haven't appeared on the state's voter rolls or on the list of pending registrations. The state says they have. Given that voters cast about 2.6 million ballots in the 2010 midterm, those 40,000 names represent another 1.5 percentage points or so of turnout.

There a good chance not only that Georgia's Senate race isn't decided for two more months, but also that the results of Tuesday's election won't give us a clear view of what Georgia voters really want. All in all, it's the most aggravating race in these midterms. And that's saying something.

What's in Wonkbook: 1) The Senate races 2) Opinions: The Fed's eroding credibility, the curse of Reagan and more 3) The state races 4) What's at stake 5) "Supercookies" and a criminal probe at J.P. Morgan.

Number of the day: 400 million. That's the decrease in the Europe's population of birds since 1980 -- about 20 percent. A new study attributes the decline to environmental degradation. Chris Mooney in The Washington Post.

Chart of the day: 

By chance, the Senate seats being contested Tuesday are particularly unfavorable to Democrats. Patrick Egan in The Washington Post.

1. Top story: How to watch the Senate races

Republicans are likely to take the Senate. On the other hand, several well known G.O.P. incumbents could lose, and many of the Senate races this year are in red states. Yes, it is a good year for Republicans, but they're aren't dominating. Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight.

But both campaigns are gearing up for runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana. In Louisiana's unusual voting system, Sen. Mary Landrieu is facing a challenge from not one but two Republicans. They will split the vote, but if Landrieu doesn't win an outright majority, analysts are skeptical that she would be able to hold onto her seat in a runoff. Campbell Robertson and Sheryl Gay Stolberg in The New York Times.

There aren't true bellwethers in this election, but here are a few counties worth watching. From Cameron Parish, La. to Knott County, Ky., these are places where candidates will have to rely on unusual coalitions to win. In many places, the focus will be on conservative white voters who traditionally voted Democratic but have since turned against the party. Nate Cohn in The New York Times.

Use caution if watching cable news. Exit polls, partisan interpretations and sensationalized accounts of purported fraud and intimidation can give viewers a misleading impression of what's actually happening at the polls. Brendan Nyhan in The New York Times.

2. Top opinions: 

AVENT: It's time for a change at the Federal Reserve. The central bank is losing credibility as it consistently fails to raise inflation to its publicly stated goal of 2 percent. Now that quantitative easing is over, no one takes that target seriously anymore. The Economist.

ALLISON SCHRAGER: Welcome to the 401(k) economy. More and more families have most of their savings in a 401(k), and they predictably bought high and sold low during the financial crisis. There's nothing wrong with owning stocks, but asking so many workign families to rely on risky assets for saving is a recipe for disaster. Bloomberg.

BROOKS: Data is destroying American politics. Candidates who rely too heavily on the quantitative techniques of pollsters and political consultants might sometimes produce majorities. But don't look to them for compelling, imaginative new visions of political life, and don't expect them to have any lasting effect on how voters think about public policy. The New York Times.

GERSON: Republicans must move past Reagan and reinvent the party. Reagan lived in a different time. Constantly invoking his name and appealing to his legacy doesn't help the nation or the conservative movement. The Washington Post.

NOCERA: Gun violence, especially suicides, are a public health problem. Doctors can help keep people safe by talking to patients about their guns -- although doing so is illegal in two states -- and medical researchers can help us understand when guns are most dangerous. The New York Times.

3. How to watch the state races

Several governors' races are still very close:

-- The two candidates in Florida's race are the most disliked of any gubernatorial contest in the past decade, and the polls show a dead heat. 

-- Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) is also in a very tight race. Voters seem dissatisfied with his gun-control legislation.

-- Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) has a narrow but stable lead in the polls, despite intense union opposition.

-- Moderate Republicans have turned against Gov. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) and his supply-side policies, and he's unlikely to win reelection. Harry Enten at Five Thirty Eight.

Martha Coakley is likely to lose the Massachusetts governor's race. Many saw her, rightly or wrongly, as having blown what should have been an easy victory in the state's special election in 2010, which cost Democrats their 60th vote in the Senate. All agree Coakley has run a more disciplined campaign this time, but her opponent, Republican Charlie Baker, is leading comfortably in the polls. Kyle Cheney at Politico.

Three states and the District of Columbia are voting on marijuana measures. The polls are too close to call in Florida and Alaska, but Oregon and the nation's capital are likely to legalize weed. Legalization in Washington, D.C. would be a big symbolic victory for pot advocates. Christopher Ingraham in The Washington Post.

Supporters of the minimum wage are using ballot initiatives to get around Republican legislatures. Voters in four states where legislators haven't raised the minimum wage will be able to vote for a higher floor on Tuesday's ballot. The measures are likely to pass. Josh Barro in The New York Times.

4. What's at stake in today's election

The Medicaid expansion is on the line in several gubernatorial races. Close governors' races in Maine, Florida, Kansas, Georgia and Wisconsin could decide whether residents in those states enjoy the Medicaid expansion under Obamacare. Jason Millman in The Washington Post.

Congressional Republicans hope to dismantle Obama's environmental policy. Republican majorities could attach policy riders to spending bills that would hamstring the EPA, or hassle the agency with extensive hearings. There's also talk of cutting off funding for the United Nation's climate change bodies, which would basically eliminate even the possibility of a meaningful international deal on carbon dioxide emissions (not that that seems particularly likely anyhow). Rebecca Leber in The New Republic. 

A Republican Senate could also stall judicial nominations. A majority of sitting federal judges have been appointed by Democrats after Obama's first six years in office, but his remaining influence over the courts and indirectly over issues like gun control, abortion and voting rights would be limited by a Republican Senate. Emily Badger in The Washington Post.

But the national policy agenda is likely to stay muddled, at least until control of the Senate is decided. With Mitch McConnell busy campaigning and the chances for any new bills unclear, legislators have given up talking about policy. If control of the Senate depends on a runoff, Congress will probably head home early after an abbreviated lame duck. Lori Montgomery in The Washington Post.

KLEIN: Here are nine reasons why everyone should vote today. For one, each vote in a midterm matters more in a mathematical sense than each vote in a presidential election. Also, if you don't vote, you can't complain. Vox.

5. In case you missed it

The supercookies are watching you. AT&T and Verizon have been monitoring their cell phone subscribers with markers called "supercookies" that even sophisticated people concerned about privacy may not be able to delete. The practice may violate federal wiretapping laws. Craig Timberg at The Washington Post.

J.P. Morgan is under criminal investigation. A regulatory filing reveals the Department of Justice is looking into the bank's handling of foreign exchange. J.P. Morgan has increased its statement of how much it expects to pay in legal fees by $1.3 billion. Emily Glazer in The Wall Street Journal

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