Nov. 2, 2014

Democrats’ House of Horrors?

WASHINGTON – While most of the media have been mesmerized by the Senate race in this year’s midterm election, it is the race for the House of Representatives that may become historic.

Suddenly, Republicans are within striking distance of an overwhelming victory not seen since before the Great Depression.

Most political prognosticators had forecast the GOP would pick up between 5-to-10 seats in the House on Tuesday, Nov. 4.

But, the nonpartisan and highly respected Cook Report just revised its prediction of a GOP gain of 4-to-10 seats to 6-to-12 seats, with slightly larger gains not out of the question.

And that’s where history suddenly comes into play.

“If Republicans were to pick up 13 seats, they would win their largest majority since 1928, when Herbert Hoover was elected president,” wrote the Cook Report’s David Wasserman.

As WND reported, most of the attention has been focused on the Senate, because of the drama centered on 10 key races. The GOP needs to gain only six seats to retake the majority in the upper chamber, which would give Republicans control of the entire Congress for President Obama’s last two years in power, presuming they hold serve in the House.

And, as WND also reported, even the mainstream media strongly expect that will happen, with the Washington Post currently giving it a 90-percent chance and the New York Times rating it as a 70-percent likelihood.

But, in the last few days before the election, the momentum has swung even further in the Republicans’ favor, and Democrats are suddenly staring at the prospect of losing the Senate and enduring a possible bloodbath in the House.

• Nonpartisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg predicts: “President Barack Obama is about to do what no president has done in the past 50 years: Have two horrible, terrible, awful midterm elections in a row.

• Nonpartisan political analysis from the Cook Report said: “Democrats are bracing for the possibility that election night could be uglier than they originally thought.”

• Politico reports: “[U]unexpected races are suddenly in play.”

• Even partisan leftist Al Hunt warns Republicans may stage a raid on the Democratic stronghold of New England, where: “[I]t’s distinctly possible they will win a majority” of the closely contested races.

A big GOP win would not shift the balance of power in the House, where Republicans already hold control. But a large victory would make it all the more difficult for Democrats to regain control in 2016, and that, analysts say, is what has them panicking.

The biggest evidence of the sudden shift?

“Follow the money. It seems to be moving toward Republican challengers and Democrat incumbents, who find themselves more vulnerable than they thought.” Colin Hanna told WND. He is the president of Let Freedom Ring USA, a nonprofit public policy group promoting constitutional government, economic freedom and traditional values.

The Cook Report backs up Hanna’s analysis, reporting the Democratic Party “has been forced to shift more and more resources to playing defense in Democratic-leaning districts, and several seats that looked in good shape a few months ago are now looking more precarious.”

Politico also spotted the late trend: “Looking to contain the damage, Democrats are pumping money into liberal congressional districts that were long thought to be safely in their column,” adding, that also has the Democrats shifting from offense to defense because they now must “yank money from districts they’re trying to seize from Republicans in order to protect seats they already control.”

The sudden shift may have been awhile in the making.

“Two things,” are causing the change, said Hanna. “The general unpopularity of Barack Obama and his policies and the general unpopularity of Washington itself.”

That assertion is backed up by the polls. The president’s approval rating began to nosedive at the start of last year and now has been abysmal for months. Obama has fallen from a 69 percent approval rating when he took office in January 2009 to 38 percent in September. He is now mired at 42.1 percent.

Additionally, Politico reports Democratic Party operatives believe Obama is dragging down House candidates across the country.

Even more indicting, WND has reported how Obama has become so toxic to the Democrats’ Senate candidates, they aren’t just running away from him, the are running against him, and attacking the president in both debates and ads with stinging rebukes one would expect to hear coming from only Republicans.

And, while only 36 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs this election, all 435 in the House are in play. So, if the election turns out to be a referendum on an unpopular president and his unpopular polices, the House of Representatives could turn into a House of horrors for Democrats.

A full 218 seats are needed for a majority in the House.

Republicans currently hold 233 seats, Democrats have 199 and three are open.

Real Clear Politics, which is considered reliable because it averages the major polls, currently projects Republicans are assured of holding 228 House seats and the Democrats should hold 183 seats, leaving 24 rated “Toss Ups.”

Seventeen of those toss-up contests have Democratic incumbents.

If the GOP wins all of those, the party would have gained 12 seats in this election.

If Republicans win all of those seats and just one more, they will have crossed that 13-seat threshold to give them their largest majority since Hoover.

There’s more bad news for House Democrats on that score from Politico, which reports, “In the districts of 24 of the 30 most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, more voters say they view the president unfavorably than favorably, ” and, “In 10 of those 24 races, Democratic lawmakers have recently lost ground along with the president.”

Left-leaning and veteran political analyst Al Hunt sees potential trouble even in the Democrat sanctuary of New England, which has been so solidly blue, all 21 House members from the region are Democrats.

Hunt notes, “Republicans are making a run in one open seat in Maine, both New Hampshire districts, and two in Massachusetts: it’s distinctly possible they will win a majority of these.”

Even more history – bad history, for the Democrats – could be in the making.

The Daily Mail observed that if Democrats manage to lose 21 seats, it would be “the worst successive results in midterm congressional elections in more than 60 years,” stretching back to when President Harry Truman lost 28 seats in 1950 and 55 in 1946.

“We’re in trench warfare. I’m not going to sugarcoat it,” New York Rep. Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told the paper.

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